Today after going through PT I came across a hand which I played while steaming heavily. I think they way I played the hand against this Villain was ok as he was a 45/5/200 hands and calls with a wide range of hands I beat.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1233397
But it got me thinking If this hand was being played against a reg who was a solid tag.
I think shoving the river here against a solid reg is terrible as I am only getting called with better hands.
So the best plan of action here is to:
A: Bet fold to shove
B: check and hope reg checks behind
C: Check and Fold
What do you guys think?
Liam
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5 comments:
It's difficult to put a solid reg into the villians spot just on the river. Not getting everything in the middle here would be extremely player dependant. You have an 8 with a good kicker, at any opponent in the BB could have any 8. I'd bet $8 at the river, and would have to have a good reason to fold to a raise.
I understand what your saying here but would find it very difficult to fold to any raise on the River unless you've got a really good read on your opponent in the hand
A: Bet fold to shove
With the hand playing out as it did, against a solid TAG opponent, I would likely fold to a shove, unless I had a read or PT stat that told me that he tended to be over aggressive on the river. Here's why I think a 'bet fold to shove' is the best line...
Say you bet out about 2/3rds the pot, which would be roughly $8, and your TAG opponent in this situation shoved his remaining $23.95 into the pot. You are gonna have to call $15.95 to win a now $43.95(?) pot. So you are getting a little over 2.75 to 1 if you call.
A solid TAG isn't going to shove verses a bigger stack, into a pot with anything less than a very strong hand, on a board this scary.
Based on how it was played... replace the Villian with a TAG... and I would put the TAG on a range of JJ, A8s maybe even 55. I would also include J8 or 58 (remember, the villain in the hand was able to check it out of the BB, so these are possible hands)... and maybe even a (poorly) passively played AA.
In fact the only hand you'd be able to take on, verses a solid TAG here, is a hand that you would split the pot with, which is K8.
Based on that range, you have less than 10% pot equity... and the pot simply isn't laying you good enough odds to be able to call a shove.
However, if through a read, you were able to add at least a couple of '8 plus no kicker' hands, that you think he could hold, that you'd beat (maybe you have a read that says that he is capable of playing a T8 or 98 in this way)... then you would have over 30% pot equity, and so then could easily call the shove.
But I don't really see a solid TAG calling a vunerable hand all the way to the river (controlling the size of the pot) only to then risk his whole stack into the face of an opponent who has triple barrelled into him (unless he had a particular image of you in that respect).
So my plan of action verses a solid TAG in this spot... would be to bet the pot and then fold to a shove.
Maybe I'm over thinking this... since in a real game, I would likely call a shove anyway then let out a string of curses if my hand lost... :)
I'be this against a solid TAG. I'd expect him to raise an 8 on the turn at the latest so I'd be happy that my had was best on the river. JJ is impossible as he would raise from the BB. 55 is impossible as he wouldn't call the flop. J8 I suppose could be there but, again, I would expect him to raise an 8 at some point.
It might be a better play to check-call against a TAG. He might bet a missed flush draw (although I doubt he'd call 2 streets on a paired board) or a worse hand than yours.
Yeah, I think the problem with putting a regular TAG in this spot is that there's no hand he can be playing correctly, the most logical perhaps being a weak 8. Value betting and folding to a raise seems optimal.
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